The Top Line
Parliament returns with Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government focused on implementing an ambitious economic agenda while navigating an uncertain geopolitical environment. As has been the calling card of this Government, the fall session will centre on accelerating economic growth and investment, managing the critical relationship with the United States, and advancing efforts to build Canadian infrastructure and more resilient supply chains, while diversifying trade and investment to reduce Canada’s long-term economic dependence on the U.S. A busy legislative agenda — led by the new Build Canada Strong Act, plans to attract private investment into Canada’s largest airports and legislation to reform federal labour laws — will unfold alongside deeper engagement with the EU and continued uncertainty surrounding the future of CUSMA, including ongoing U.S.-Mexico trade discussions that could have fundamental implications for Canada’s trade relationship with the United States. Meanwhile, the Quebec election, Alberta referendum and possibility of an early British Columbia election could result in developments outside Ottawa having a significant impact on the Government’s Fall agenda.
A Deeper Dive
When Parliament returns on September 21, Prime Minister Carney’s Government will enter a new phase of its mandate. After spending much of its first year establishing its economic and geopolitical direction, with a stable majority in Parliament, the government can now look to translate that agenda into legislation, investment and tangible results.
The government will remain focused on economic growth and affordability at home while managing an increasingly complicated relationship with the United States and responding to a volatile international environment. Underlying these priorities is a broader objective that has become increasingly explicit in the government’s agenda: strengthening Canada’s economic sovereignty by building domestic capacity, developing new infrastructure and supply chains, and diversifying trade and investment relationships.
The government has increasingly presented these objectives as parts of a single economic strategy. The Prime Minister has argued that Canada needs to be less reliant on Canada-U.S. trade in the long term, regardless of who is President. The Government will spend much of the next year implementing steps to achieve this goal. This includes last week’s investment summit and address to the EU Parliament, The Government’s Defence Industrial Strategy and its emphasis on critical minerals, energy and transportation infrastructure all point in this direction.
This does not mean attempting to completely unwind Canada’s enormous economic relationship with the United States. Geography, existing supply chains and the scale of the U.S. market make continued integration inevitable. Rather, the government’s emerging objective appears to be reducing Canada’s dependence on the U.S. as its overwhelmingly dominant economic partner and increasing Canada’s ability to withstand future disruptions in the bilateral relationship.
A Busy Legislative Agenda
The result should be a busy fall in Parliament.
One of the centrepieces of the fall agenda will be the government’s proposed Build Canada Strong Act. Prime Minister Carney has described the objective as “one project, one review, one year,” signaling that regulatory speed and predictability will be central to the government’s economic agenda this fall.
The legislation will be important, not simply because of the projects it could affect, but because it will test the government’s ability to reconcile several competing imperatives: faster approvals, environmental and Indigenous consultation requirements, federal-provincial jurisdiction and the desire to attract substantially more private capital.
Another significant initiative likely to require legislation will be the government’s commitment to introduce private-sector investment into Canada’s four largest airports — Toronto Pearson, Montréal-Trudeau, Vancouver and Calgary. The details of this proposal, while scant at this point, will ultimately matter. Already the Government is facing opposition to this proposal from organized Labour, the NDP as well as some airline sector groups. The proposal could unlock significant private capital for airport infrastructure and regional airports, but it will also generate questions about governance, airport fees, competition, regulation and the appropriate role of private investors in strategically important national infrastructure.
Other important, but less high profile Bills currently before Parliament include, The Lawful Access Act (C-22), Safe Social Media Act (C-34), and Protecting Privacy and Consumer Data Act (C-36). These Bills are also likely to be important components of the Government’s fall legislative agenda.
Managing Washington
The most consequential external issue remains Canada’s relationship with the United States.
The government’s challenge is increasingly twofold: manage the immediate trade relationship with Washington while simultaneously pursuing a longer-term strategy designed to give Canada more economic options.
Developments between Washington and Mexico will warrant particularly close attention this fall. While Canada officially stopped its negotiations with the United States in late August, the United States and Mexico have held ongoing bilateral discussions related to CUSMA and President Trump’s tariffs covering automobiles, steel and other goods. Recent media reports from Mexico have signaled that Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is hopeful a deal can be reached before the U.S midterms in November.
For Ottawa, these discussions matter because bilateral U.S.-Mexico understandings on automotive content, supply-chain security or rules of origin could establish expectations that subsequently affect Canada. More broadly, they will provide an important indication of Washington’s approach to the future of continental trade and the extent to which the current Canada-U.S. trade conflict can be separated from the ongoing CUSMA negotiations.
The government’s response is unlikely to be a choice between North America and other markets. Instead, Ottawa will seek to preserve as much access and predictability as possible in the U.S. relationship while steadily building alternatives.
Canada-EU Relationship
Europe is now emerging as the most important element of that diversification strategy. Prime Minister Carney and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen have both openly called for a deepening of the Canada-EU relationship in the past week, with President von der Leyen even calling for Canada to become an Associate EU member. The upcoming Canada–EU Summit, being held October 29–30 in Montreal, should provide the first glimpse of how this political alignment might be translated into concrete commercial opportunities and new investment.
The details that emerge over the coming months will therefore be worth watching closely. Arrangements around investment, procurement, defence production, energy, critical minerals and technology may provide an indication of whether Canada’s diversification strategy can move from political ambition to more meaningful economic integration with Europe.
Provincial Politics Could Impact the Fall Agenda
The federal agenda will also be affected by political developments outside Ottawa.
The Quebec election on October 5 will inevitably influence the federal political environment, particularly on questions of economic policy, federal-provincial relations and Quebec’s role within major national infrastructure and industrial initiatives. Recent polls show the Parti Québécois maintaining a narrow lead in a tightening race. A PQ government would likely introduce a more contentious dynamic into federal–Quebec relations as PQ Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon would likely seek greater autonomy from Ottawa, even as he has ruled out holding a sovereignty referendum while Donald Trump remains U.S. president.
Two weeks later, attention will shift west. Alberta will hold a province-wide referendum on October 19, 2026. The campaign will ensure that questions of Western alienation, energy development, federalism and national unity remain prominent during the opening weeks of the parliamentary session and beyond.
British Columbia adds another element of uncertainty. While the province’s next fixed election date is not until 2028, the likelihood of an early election this fall would create another significant provincial political event at a time when Ottawa is seeking cooperation with provinces on infrastructure, energy, permitting and internal trade. Premier Eby has increasingly signalled his dissatisfaction with Ottawa’s approach to Canada-U.S. relations, the Prime Minister’s pick of the EU (rather than Asia) to prioritize for trade diversification, and what natural resource projects are selected as national/major project priorities. Should Premier Eby go to the polls and gain a majority mandate he will likely become increasingly vocal in opposing certain elements of Prime Minister Carney’s agenda.
What It Means for Advocacy
For organizations engaging Ottawa the challenge is clear. First, identify how your priorities align with economic growth, trade diversification and attempts to build a more resilient economy; second, be prepared to match the Government’s urgent pace amid a potentially volatile geopolitical environment and shifting federal- provincial dynamic; and third, be alert for potential issues that could force their way onto the Government agenda (for example ongoing concerns about affordability).
Conclusion
The fall session begins with a crowded agenda. The Government’s challenge is no longer defining what it wants to do, its priorities have been clear for some time: accelerated economic growth and investment; building infrastructure and domestic industrial capacity; strengthen sovereign and allied supply chains; managing the U.S. relationship; and diversifying Canada’s economic partnerships.
The fall agenda should see the Government focused on demonstrating results for these priorities, knowing it now has a year or more of stable majority status in Parliament.
The Build Canada Strong Act will provide an early test of whether Ottawa can materially accelerate project development. The airport initiative will test its willingness to use private capital in new ways. The developing relationship with Europe will indicate how much practical economic diversification can follow from Canada’s geopolitical realignment. And how the Government manages its relationship with President Trump will demonstrate how much room Canada has to pursue that diversification while protecting its place in the North American economy.
At the same time, elections and referendums in Quebec, Alberta and potentially British Columbia will ensure that the government’s economic agenda unfolds against a complicated domestic political backdrop.
