By: Brian Klunder, Senior Counsel
We have just witnessed one of Canadian history’s most politically significant periods. It began with Chrystia Freeland’s resignation as Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance on the day she was scheduled to deliver her Fall Economic Statement. This was followed by a caucus revolt against a sitting Prime Minister, the resignation of the Prime Minister, and an aggressive stance by an American president regarding Canadian exports and sovereignty.
Doug Ford then called a snap election to address the economic threat coming from the south and “Protect Ontario”. The Ontario Progressive Conservative Party emerged victorious, securing a third consecutive majority mandate in the province for the first time since 1959.
After the emergence of a new political voice in Mark Carney, the Liberals quickly made up a 20-point polling gap and secured a fourth consecutive Liberal mandate. A result many thought impossible in December 2024.
The Carney government is seeking to drive significant change and is asking that it be judged based on results. With an aggressive agenda, the government is moving quickly as it seeks to deliver these results.
With this in mind, what can we reasonably expect over the next six months? First, this will not be a dull summer in Ottawa as Departments and Senior Public Servants across the National Capital Region seek to prepare their priorities to align with the Prime Minister’s mandate letter to Ministers. We will also see a big push to implement the Carney government’s signature legislation – Bill C-5 (the One Canadian Economy Act) – this implementation will have to show how the government is meeting its obligations to consult Indigenous communities across the country.
Prime Minister Carney announced he will attend the Canada-European Union and NATO Summits next week. Given recent media reports, we should expect Canada to sign a defence procurement agreement with the EU that will form a significant part of Canada’s efforts to increase and accelerate investments in defence.
Coming out of the G7, we learned that the Prime Minister and President Trump have agreed to negotiate an economic and security deal to end the Canada-U.S. trade war. Both Leaders have set an aggressive timeline of 30 days to complete these negotiations.
All of this will significantly inform the federal Budget process, which I foresee taking place in two parts—Part 1 in the Fall with a Fall Budget and an update on the current economic framework and Part 2 with the Spring Budget, which will outline the government fiscal plan and where it will be focussing its spending for this mandate.
Each of these elements, on its own, would be a massive undertaking for a new government. Together, they represent the most aggressive agenda we have seen from a federal government in decades. The Prime Minister has picked his field Generals—Marc-André Blanchard in the PMO, Michael Sabia as Clerk of the Privy Council, and Dominic Leblanc and Tim Hodgson in his Cabinet. The talk and commitments are now over, and the next six months will be about beginning to deliver on the commitments.
