By Brian St. Louis, Director, Temple Scott Associates
Just as in the lead up to Pierre Poilievre’s leadership win, anyone who told you there would be anything other than a decisive victory was either uninformed of the realities at play, or was trying to spin you. With 80.4 per cent of the vote, and the Liberal candidate at just 4.3 per cent, this week’s result will quickly toss into the dustbins of history any suggestions of something happening other than what should have been expected to occur.
Rural Alberta remains staunchly small and big “C” conservative, and showed no signs of rejecting the Conservative party under Poilievre’s leadership. Now that this foregone conclusion has passed to be mostly forgotten, what happens next and what do onlookers need to be considering?
Underestimate at your peril
Having known, supported and watched Pierre for a long time, one thing is constant: he doesn’t give up. Every time he’s been underestimated, from his earliest days as a young nomination candidate, through his time as MP and onto the Conservative leadership race, many thought he’d never succeed. Underestimate him at your own peril. For Pierre, winning wasn’t just about getting back into the House, it was about continuing to build the movement he has, and influence and control the national conversation.
Will anything change for Canadians?
It’s worth remembering that the conditions that propelled Poilievre into leadership and a very impressive showing in the recent election, remain: a frustrated electorate, a cost-of-living crisis and a political class that seems out of touch and unwilling or unable to tackle or even talk about the key issues Canadians are feeling and seeing in their lives.
Those conditions haven’t gone away, and in fact, could become more prominent as fiscal and economic challenges build. For many Canadians, at an increasing level, crime, drug and immigration issues also show no signs of serious changes in direction. This isn’t just a return to parliament for him. It’s a return to the terrain that made him a serious contender, where the macro-dynamic is unlikely to change, even with a new Prime Minister now in charge of a Liberal Party that has been in government for close to 10 years and counting.
The Carney factor – expectations
As a new Prime Minister, Mark Carney is still in the “honeymoon phase.” And while many Canadians have embraced Carney’s ambitious agenda, with ambition comes expectations. If the Government is not able to deliver on its ambition on housing, for example, many Canadians are likely to be disappointed. In contrast, whether people love Poilievre or hate him, they know what he brings to the table, and nobody could accuse him of being inconsistent. Poilievre’s challenge is to keep building on momentum, whereas Carney’s is to live up to expectations that he himself has set.
An old boss of mine in politics, in one of his many pieces of sage and wise advice used to say, “politics is a lot like marriage, it is all about setting low expectations and grossly exceeding them.” While this may have been a bit of a tongue in cheek joke, those high expectations for Carney can be a dangerous place to be. For Carney, compromises and disappointments are a reality of Government, so for Poilievre there is still room to grow or recapture support, or even just eliminate the enthusiasm some voters last Spring had for his opponent.
What clients should be thinking about
The Conservative Party itself is unlikely to change dramatically in the near term. Poilievre’s style and priorities are firmly imprinted on the organization from top to bottom, and this byelection and the current environment will not change this.
For clients, the lesson is clear: don’t assume you can wait until the next election cycle to engage Conservatives. Too many organizations fall into the trap of pausing relationships, only to scramble later to rebuild credibility and scrub old materials. That scramble will be noticed, and it won’t be forgotten.
If the past nine months of federal politics has taught us anything it should be that stakeholders have to be prepared for even the most unlikely of scenarios. Consider this plausible scenario: a potential recession, falling approval ratings for the government of the day, and a Conservative Party that enters the next election cycle with real momentum (albeit again…). If that happens, will your organization be ready with a track record of meaningful, consistent engagement? Or will you be scrambling to reboot at the eleventh hour?
The conditions that created Poilievre’s rise haven’t gone away. For organizations, the smart move is to prepare now, stay engaged, and avoid the temptation to sit back and wait.
