By: Brian Klunder, Senior Counsel
With an election now called for April 28, 2025, I will be tracking movement during this campaign and am launching an election projection report. The report, to be released each Monday of the campaign, will provide my seat projection (as outlined in the methodology below), a view on key ridings to watch and a polling average of publicly released polls (nationally and regionally) from the previous week.
Seat Projection (majority requires 172 seats)
The first seat projection shows a small Liberal majority, with the NDP, BQ, and Greens all losing seats. The Liberals win seats in all regions, but the campaign will be important to see if they can hold off Conservative challenges in Ontario, Manitoba and BC. The NDP would be short of winning 12 seats and official party status in the House of Commons.
Ridings to Watch
Outlined below are key ridings to watch as we enter this campaign.
Cardigan, Prince Edward Island – Lawrence MacAuley is retiring after first winning his seat in the 1988 federal election. Can the Liberal Party win without this stalwart on the ballot?
La Prairie—Atateken, Quebec – This may be one of the closest races in the country between the Bloc Québécois and the Liberal Party. The Bloc may be playing defence in this one.
Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill, Ontario – The Conservatives see an opportunity to take a seat from the Liberals in this 905 riding north of Toronto. The race is close, but the Conservatives currently have a lead.
Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk, Ontario – Redistribution has joined two northern ridings, and both incumbent NDP MPs Carol Hughes and Charlie Angus, are not running. Without an incumbency advantage, both the Liberals and Conservatives are chasing a victory with the Conservatives currently leading. This is a rare three-party race.
Nipissing—Timiskaming, Ontario – With former Speaker Anthony Rota retiring. The Conservatives are seeking to win this seat from the Liberal Party. This riding could be an important bellwether.
Windsor West, Ontario – Brian Masse took over Windsor West in 2002 after the retirement of Herb Gray. He is, perhaps, facing his biggest challenge yet from the Liberal Party.
Calgary McKnight, Alberta – Can the Liberal Party win in Calgary in 2025? The best chance is in Calgary McNight.
Burnaby Central, British Columbia – Jagmeet Singh looks like he is at risk of losing his seat. How much time does he need to use to defend his won seat rather than build NDP support nationally?
National Polling Average (%)
The Liberals are running strong east of the Manitoba border but are also increasing vote share in the West. With leads in the Atlantic, Quebec and Ontario regions they are building a significant lead before entering the prairies where Conservatives have considerable strength. Also critical is the weakness of the NDP and Green Party. It will be important to see if they – and the PPC – can gain strength over the course of the campaign or if voters will see this as purely a Liberal vs Conservative fight.
What It Means
Campaigns matter, and this campaign will certainly matter. Mark Carney is running in his first election campaign, and the learning curve is massive. It will be difficult to do this against a strong retail politician like Pierre Poilievre. The Conservatives will aggressively present their vision, and polls will undoubtedly move over the course of the campaign.
I’ll be watching all proceedings closely and providing advice on how we can expect each party to govern after April 28th. With both Liberal and Conservative majorities and minorities as possible outcomes – knowing how each will govern will be critically important.
Methodology – The TSA Seat projection is calculated based on publicly released polls over the previous week. Each riding result is based on the results of the 2019 and 2021 elections and transposed to the new seat boundaries. Thanks to the work Phillipe Fournier has done at 338Canada to transpose votes for both 2019 and 2021. Riding results are compared to regional results in 2019 and 2021 to calculate a projected result for each riding.
