By: Brian Klunder, Senior Counsel
We have entered the final week of this campaign, and with the debates completed and platforms tabled, we can look at what to expect as we near election day.
This week, the campaigns are looking to shore up support by making defensive moves to hold onto a seat or playing pure offence as they seek to make gains. For the Liberal and Conservative parties, offence is the name of the game as they work to confirm a path to victory.
Where they go is very much impacted by polling and where opportunity appears. Many of these ridings were not necessarily considered pick-up opportunities when this campaign began but now are seen to be in play. This week, I am looking at where Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre have been visiting over the past week to 10 days and provide some rationale as to what they see based on the poll averages and seat projections we have been looking at over the last four weeks.
Seat Projection (majority requires 172 seats)
We have seen some movement in the seat projections that are a result of polls becoming closer.
My seat projection currently is that the Liberal Party is projected to win 193 seats (down from 204 last week). The Liberals have lost the advantage in Quebec (4), Atlantic (2) and B.C. (6) ridings. The projection model has the Conservatives at 123 seats (up from 118 last week). The gains are in Atlantic (2) and B.C. (4) ridings. I also see the Bloc making gains in Quebec, and they are now projected to win 22 seats (up from 18 last week). The NDP increased their seat count from three to four, gaining back Vancouver East and Elmwood—Transcona while falling behind in Hamilton Centre. Finally, we see Elizabeth May winning her seat in Saanich—Gulf Islands.
I continue to see close races across the country, and small polling changes could impact who gains seats and who loses them. I am watching this closely and will provide short updates to keep readers updated.
Ridings to Watch
This week, I am watching where Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre spend their time as we get closer to election day. I am specifically looking to what these campaigns are seeing and why they have targeted the ridings and regions they have. Of course, campaigns use their own polling and conduct deep dives into specific ridings to gauge potential outcomes. As I do not have access to internal party polls (I wish!), I’ll work with the poll average.
Liberal Party of Canada
Victoria (B.C.) – Victoria has been an NDP stronghold since 2006, and the Liberal Party sees an opportunity to take it from popular NDP incumbent Laurel Collins. My projection shows a Liberal win is now likely, and the recent Mark Carney visit to the riding looked to secure this advantage.
Regina—Wascana (SK) – Regina Wascana is the old seat of long-time MP and senior Cabinet Minister Ralph Goodale. Mr. Goodale lost it in 2019 to the Conservatives, and the Liberals smell a potential victory. While Mr. Carney visited Saskatoon, any visit to Saskatchewan can boost fortunes across the province, and Regina—Wascana is definitely a target.
Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North (ON) – Mark Carney visited Brantford on May 18. This riding is new and comes about as Brant County was split into two ridings – Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North and Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations. The Conservatives hold an advantage, but let’s see if Mark Carney’s visit can push the Liberals over the top to win one or both seats.
Peterborough (ON) – Peterborough is always a seat both the Conservatives and Liberals covet, with the Conservatives winning in 2021. This seat is currently close, with the Liberals holding a small advantage. I expect both campaigns to put resources into this seat as they seek to win it on election day.
Rivière-des-Mille-Îles (QC) – This riding is a race between the Liberals and the Bloc, with Team Carney currently holding a strong advantage. This would be a good sign that Mr. Carney has made big inroads into Quebec and his recent visit showed the priority being given to this seat in the northern suburbs of Montreal.
Conservative Party of Canada
Skeena—Bulkley Valley (B.C.) – This large and diverse riding in northwestern B.C. has been represented by Taylor Bachrach from the NDP. The Conservatives are benefitting from the NDP drop in the polls and Pierre Poilievre’s visit to Terrace was a clear sign they see this riding as one they can add to their win column. Right now, this appears to be a comfortable pick-up for the Conservatives.
Edmonton Southeast (AB) – The Liberal Party believes it can hold Edmonton Southeast with Edmonton Mayor and former MP, Amarjeet Sohi, as its candidate. Pierre Poilievre would love to take this seat from the Liberals and show how strong the Conservatives are across Alberta. My projection has this as a 5% Liberal lead so it may come down to on-the-ground organization on who wins.
Kitchener—Conestoga (ON) – Like the 905, urban-rural ridingsin southwest Ontario are obvious targets for Conservative gains. Kitchener—Conestoga is a significant target that the Conservatives see as vulnerable. Current polling suggests the Liberals still have an advantage.
Milton East—Halton Hills South (ON) – This represents one of the new ridings in the 905-area surrounding Toronto. While the Liberals currently are showing an advantage, Pierre Poilievre has to be able to win ridings like Milton East—Halton Hills South if he hopes to form government.
Trois-Rivières (QC) – This Bloc held seat is turning into a coin toss race between the Liberals and Conservatives with both seeing the opportunity for a significant pick-up. The riding has already seen Pierre Poilievre visit and today they are receiving a visit from Mark Carney – proving this is a riding to watch for partisans of both parties on April 28. As of today, the Conservatives enjoy a small advantage in our projection.
National Polling Average (%)
While I continue to see a spread in the polls, I have seen the overall polling average close. Last week, I had the Liberals lead by 6.5% nationally, whereas this week, that lead is 4.3%. This has led to a smaller Liberal seat lead and Conservative gains. While I am still projecting a Liberal majority – based on its polling strength in Atlantic Canada, Quebec and Ontario – Conservative gains in B.C. and continued strength in Alberta and Saskatchewan are making this a closer race.
I see the NDP making small gains in support – primarily in B.C. and the Prairie region – but this has not yet begun to translate into seats. This is something to watch over the coming days. Should the NDP or Bloc be able to make gains at the expense of the Liberal Party, I could certainly see this race get even closer, putting a Liberal minority and possibly a Conservative government in play.
What It Means
This election has lived up to my prediction that it would be a race between the Liberals and Conservatives. While I do not see the tariff fight daily like we did in the early days of the campaign, I continue to believe it as a factor in people’s voting decisions.
I am watching this race closely and will provide further updates over the course of the week to ensure you know where the model predicts it to finish.
Methodology – The TSA Seat projection is calculated based on national polls taken over the previous week. Each riding result is based on the results of the 2019 and 2021 elections and transposed to the new seat boundaries. Thanks to the work Phillipe Fournier has done at 338Canada to transpose votes for both 2019 and 2021. Riding results are compared to regional results in 2019 and 2021 to calculate a projected result for each riding.
